The Long Shot

Posted by BJ
I attended the ‘To Bid or Not to Bid’ session presented by Jay Herther at the recent Pragmatech User Forum. (I attended in a show of support as Jay is a fellow ‘Nashuan’ [as us folks who reside in Nashua, NH {Greater Boston} refer to ourselves] and a fellow member of the NorEaster’ APMP chapter.) For those of you who didn’t attend the Pragmatech User Forum, you’ll have another opportunity to catch Jay’s presentation at the annual APMP conference in New Orleans in May.

​Jay used an analogy within his presentation that I really liked and he kindly said I could share it with you.

Jay compared going after different types of bids to various shots in basketball. In basketball, each shot is of a different level of difficulty and the percentage that it might result in a basket and points, varies with that level of difficulty. Each shot also carries some risk that the other team will take possession of the ball. The points are also different for a more difficult shot than one that is deemed easier.

Now, I’m not a big sports fan like Jay, but I get the basic concept. Jay used three types of shots in his analogy; Lay-ups, 3 pointers and from half court.

And the approximate associated percentages he offered were -

• Lay-up – 85%
• 3 point -  < 30%
• Half court – <10%

Jay explained that if a basketball player had unlimited time and unlimited shots, it would make sense for them to take any shot at any time. But, just like us proposal people, basketball players rarely have unlimited time, energy or opportunities. Generally speaking, all of these are limited. Also, as each shot carries risk, the player needs to assess and consider this before taking the shot. Given all this, the logical approach is to take the shot where the chance of success is the greatest and the risk is the lowest.

Now it does happen that a team can be in a position to take a 3 point or a half court shot. This is usually when they are significantly ahead or have strategically positioned themselves so that they have a high probability of success and have minimized the risks.

I think the corollary to proposals is fairly obvious, right? Proposal resources are always finite and typically over capacity. To maximize effectiveness, these limited resources need to be used on those opportunities that have been carefully and fully qualified and the probability of success is greatest. Doing anything less, you’ll just be taking a lot of shots and not making many baskets!

Thanks Jay…and I’ll see you in New Orleans.